Defossilizing the Chemicals Industry: Achieving 20% Biomass Integration by 2050

A new study commissioned by the Renewable Carbon Initiative (RCI) and the Biobased Industries Consortium (BIC) reveals that it is achievable and sustainable to supply 20% of the global carbon demand in the chemicals and derived materials sector from biomass by 2050. Today, over 90% of the carbon used in this industry comes from fossil fuel resources such as oil, natural gas, and coal- major contributors to climate change. The sector must transition from fossil fuels to renewable alternatives like biogenic carbon, carbon captured from CO2, and recycled materials to reach climate neutrality,

The study, carried out by the nova-Institute in collaboration with EURCARE Agricultural Policy Research and the Thünen Institute of Forestry (TI-WF, DE), established a baseline for current biomass utilization and developed multiple future scenarios. These included a Business-as-Usual (BAU) pathway, two Green Low Resource Depletion (LRD) models, and three Green High (HT) Technology approaches. Under the moderate High Technology scenario, the most likely development, the 20% biomass target can be met without compromising food, feed, or biofuel needs. Dispensing more than 20% of carbon demand from biomass would be absurd under existing biofuel policies and only a moderately high-tech agricultural system; stronger high-tech scenarios could provide up to 40%. This pioneering study paves a clear path toward sustainable, low-carbon industry transformation.